Bert, Hi hope all is well.
I took a quick look. On a short term basis I think I am in general in agreement, re the DOW. I have not called a top here, and will not. But my TA and EW thinks it done or very nearly so, and ready to head downhill. How much how soon I will not predict. I have found in the past that when I get overly confident I am usually incorrect.
So my present play on all this is USPIX at the moment, am ahead, and have a 2 % port weighting. I am going to trade in and out based on my favorite TA signals, supplemented with any counts I may have.
On a long term basis his DOW comments are most interesting. I find his predictions hard to believe. The longwavers don't predict a bottom for some years yet, more than likely, and if I had a gun pointed to my head and had to predict, I would be as the longwavers (at present).
Re, gold we are about on the same exact path.
It seems the Prechterites are still predicting a gold dump here soon, and I remain cognizant of that. But many others, including myself don't see it. I can not comprehend how the HUI would be at these levels, and apparently in a bullish run up, if gold was ready to get trashed. It just doesn't add up, but as we both know anything is possible. I think this dichotomy is what frustrates a lot of folks re EW. We have supposed professionals here, looking at the same charts, concluding two completely different things. Strange, maybe, maybe not.
If I had to make a prediction it would be more likely imo that the HUI is on a long final wave, for this run. Most folks who EW say something similar, the TA seems to back it up, and more importantly if you look at a lot of longterm individual equity charts, they have a long ways to retrace here. It appears they remain on path in doing so.
Not to get too long winded - I'm presently thinking an optimum path for myself is to stay overweight PM's here for a spell yet. My USPIX play is to find out if I am right or wrong re the gen market direction. One does not do this correctly by sitting on the sidelines. If the gen market heads down the best time to rotate to shorts (from pm's) will probably be a little ways down the road, when the curve downward steepens. That is my present plan, without being married to it.
In case you didn't see Petch:
gold-eagle.com
Sometimes I think Petch totally off base, and a few times he has been. But I thought this piece of work fairly decent. I going to sift through it again today.
Yes Bert I agree wholeheartedly, this market is beyond belief.
Good Luck. |
