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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (2246)	11/16/2003 6:52:34 PM
From: eddieww	Read Replies (1) of 110194

No, a 1/4 pt rise won't affect demand so much from where demand is going anyway. I think China is going to be in trouble anyway as consumer demand here will have to slow. No more refis unless 30yr mortgage rates drop back near 5%, and maybe lots fewer cash-outs even so. I already remodeled the house and don't need (don't want!) to do it again. I keep thinking the US consumer will begin to get scared by their debt load and lack of savings and slow down. My wife says nobody is slowing until they can't get any more credit. A 1/4 pt rise in Fed Funds isn't going to change the revolving rate, but it might be seen as a danger signal by the banks and other credit providers and cause them to tighten standards. We live in interesting times, in a Chinese curse sort of way. We are about to find out if the world, and the US, can print it's way to prosperity. "Reminds me of the guy who jumped off the ten-story building...as he was falling, people on every floor kept hearing him say, 'so far, so good'." ~Steve McQueen's character in "The Magnificent Seven"

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