Hi Bob, I like your enthusiasm in anticipation of the future stock price rises, and while I think there will be future price rises, I expect more of a "trading" environment in the next year or so.
From a percentage gain point of view, I think the big gains are behind us. I posted a summary table last Monday that showed the percentage gains over the past 13 month period since 9 October 2002. The table can be found at:
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Notice that during that 13 month period, the Group is up 180 percent, the SOX is up 146 percent, and the NASDAQ is up 77 percent.
Don't get me wrong, I expect more dollar gains, but from a percentage point of view, much less than the past few months.
Also, the recent gains have come from rising expectations of a recovery that is yet to show its head above water. As you know, Bookings for the semi-equips have been bouncing along in the 700M per month range for a long time. Maybe the BtB report due out this week will have a substantial increase in this number - I hope so - we don't have long to wait to find out. But we are at the point where the Bookings(to be followed by increased Billings) need to increase just to support the present prices that have run up over the past many months.
Don |
