Above 400, there are almost no December puts in the money
(14), and a boatload of calls (75720). The open interest
on Dec. futures is 178683 contracts. Assuming that specs
are mostly long, that gives roughly 254,000 December
contracts, long. That's roughly worth $10 billion, notional
value. Every dollar of gold price puts 25 Million pocket
change into someone's pocket. The 10 billion NV is nothing
for the bullion banks
Previous record commercials short was around 100,000
contracts. So, gold could go down pretty fast!
Or, it could soar pretty fast as well. But
the latter is usually much less likely. It happened in
September and October, though.
So, a titanic fight is scheduled to continue until
Nov., 24(December options expiration), and Nov., 26
(First notice day on December contract). With roughly 1 week
to expiration, if the specs can reverse the gold dump and
force the bullion banks to hedge, we may also see a very
sizable move up. |
