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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Noel de Leon who wrote (119816)11/17/2003 5:30:12 PM
From: Sam  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
Not one single intelligence agency believed in the downfall of the Soviet Union, but it happened, to everyone's surprise. I think there was a single French commentator that predicted the event.

Actually, Daniel Moynihan predicted it in the late 70s--he saw how disconnected the Soviet government was from the people, and how the whole system was seizing up. To be sure, he did NOT predict the exact timing or way it toppled. But he certainly got the trend. As did several graduate student friends of mine who studied there in the late 70s. But they didn't publish anything. You just had to talk to the people and see how they didn't believe a word of what the government said. It was a little like a structure standing on rust--you know it's going to fall but you don't know when.

But as far as Nadine's point is concerned--I know it's useless arguing with her, but plenty of people including ex CIA people have chimed in with protests that the Bush admin selected the facts the wanted to believed and dismissed those that contradicted the case they wanted to be true. Anyone who publicly contradicted the official case was dismissed as a fringe nut or in Saddam's pay or some such thing--it is hardly surprising that not many people wanted to subject themselves to that kind of treatment.

McGovern was right in '72 about Vietnam; Mondale was right in '84 about the necessity of raising taxes. But it doesn't matter--they were steamrollered by Republican PR campaigns. We got "Peace with Honor" from Nixon after '72, and we got the largest tax increase to that date from Reagan in '86 (though they were called "user fees," so they weren't really "taxes"). And Bush says he won't leave Iraq.

I'll predict this: By 2006 at the latest, we will be out of Iraq one way or another. If Republicans are in office, it will be declared a victory. If Democrats are in office, it will be declared a defeat.
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