GS Note: NPS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2003E ($3.41), 2004E ($3.02) In-Line/Neutral
(NPSP) $28.12
At a kidney specialist meeting on November 14-17, AMGN/NPSP presented for the
first time impressive Phase III data on cinacalcet. We expect $0.5B potential and
FDA approval in Q1/04 to treat secondary hyperparathyroidism. Roche also released
for the 1st time the structure and favorable Phase II data on a pegylated EPO, which
is a potential competitor to AMGN's Aranesp. While CERA may be given less
frequently than Aranesp, we see limited advantage in the dialysis and cancer markets.
Assuming, positive data from Phase III trials that are about to start, launch in major
European countries is expected in 2006/07. In the US, AMGN's patents remain a
major barrier. AMGN shares are trading at 24x our 2004 EPS or PEG of 1.1, versus
the group average of 30X PE and 1.4X PEG. We continue to rate AMGN
Outperform within a Neutral coverage view based on solid EPS growth, an
increasingly visible pipeline and further sales and/or earnings upside. Risks include,
slower sales, reimbursement cuts, and patent disputes. |
