Area seen as hotly contested for top job
Both parties see area up for grabs; economy will be big issue
By BRETT MARCY
bmarcy@leader.net
LABEL: 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Northeastern Pennsylvania will likely feature fierce political skirmishes between President Bush and his Democratic challenger next year as they battle for the state's crucial 21 electoral votes.
Though the region traditionally votes Democratic, both parties say Northeastern Pennsylvania is up for grabs.
The Democratic National Committee already has targeted the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre market with a TV ad criticizing Bush on his handling of the investigation into who leaked the identity of a CIA agent to political columnist Robert Novak.
The ad ran last month for a week, but has not aired elsewhere.
For Bush, Pennsylvania is clearly a priority. Since taking office in 2000, he has visited the Keystone State 22 times, second only to his home state of Texas.
"No question, (Bush) has worked hard to court Pennsylvania voters," said Josh Earnest, a DNC spokesman. "But no amount of travel is going to cover up the fact that his economic policies have failed. It's going to be difficult for him to cover up his horrible record."
Citing economic statistics - 86,000 Pennsylvanians have lost jobs during the Bush presidency, with 9,000 jobs lost in Scranton alone - Earnest said Democrats can shore up their party faithful and win swing voters in the area based on the bleak economy.
Conversely, the Bush camp believes his economic policy will be a key to him winning the state he narrowly lost to former Vice President Al Gore in 2000.
U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pittsburgh, chairman of the Bush re-election team in Pennsylvania, predicts Bush can capture northeastern Pennsylvania.
"The economy is turning much, much stronger," Santorum said. "I think the people of Northeastern Pennsylvania are beginning to see that. The jobs are moving in. The president has shown that his vision of the economy fits in well with Northeastern Pennsylvania."
Ed Mitchell, a Democratic political strategist based in Kingston, said he doesn't buy Santorum's hype.
"For Democrats to win here, they have to fight Bush on the economic issues," he said. "They say it's getting better, but I doubt that the people here feel that."
In 2000, Bush lost Wyoming, Luzerne and Lackawanna counties by a combined 30,000 votes - 55 percent for Gore to 42 percent for Bush. The previous two presidential elections favored Democrat Bill Clinton.
However, the Bush campaign sees a weakening of the chokehold Democrats had on the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre region.
Santorum points to the overturn of power in the Lackawanna County Courthouse with the election of a Republican majority board of commissioners, as well as the region's culturally conservative background. He said he believes there is significant support for Bush's recent signing of the partial-birth abortion ban and for the war in Iraq.
"These are the kinds of traditional conservative values that are important for that region, and they're important for the president," Santorum said.
The region does identify with Bush on cultural issues, but those will not be the defining aspects of the presidential race, says G. Terry Madonna, chairman of the political science department at Millersville University.
"Democrats might be in a little better position than the Republicans because of issues on the domestic side - loss of jobs, the downturn in the economy ... prescription drugs, Medicare reform and health care in general," Madonna said.
Democrats around the state have hailed the results of this year's major elections as a sign that Bush will have trouble carrying Pennsylvania. Democrats won big races in Philadelphia, Allegheny County and in the statewide judicial races.
Still, the victors prevailed on local issues, and will have no coattails for the Democratic presidential nominee next year, Madonna said.
"I do not think the tea leaves tell us anything about the election next year other than to say that Pennsylvania is going to be a critical state," he said.
Santorum went further, saying Pennsylvanians should get used to seeing Air Force One at their airports.
"I think (Bush) will be in Pennsylvania a lot, and I have no doubt he'll be in Northeastern Pennsylvania quite a bit."
Brett Marcy, the Times Leader's Harrisburg correspondent, may be reached at (717) 238-4728.
© 2003 Times Leader and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.
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