I hope this so-called "expert" is wrong!!--US likely to aid Taiwan against China, says expert
By Larry Teo
THE United States could race to Taiwan's defence if China attacks the island, despite their growing trade ties and Washington's promise to stay neutral if the conflict had resulted from Taiwan seeking independence, a US defence consultant said yesterday.
'Taiwan has shown itself to be consistently and recognisably a democracy in the image of the US over the years,' said Mr Charles Hawkins, who founded the US-based Historical Evaluation and Research Organisation.
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He was speaking at a seminar organised by the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute yesterday.
Washington would have to 'weigh the ideal of defending a democracy against its economic engagements with China', he said.
And his view was that trade ties would not matter much in Washington's decision making.
'It may come to a point where the US is resigned to choosing ideals as opposed to economic benefits,' said Mr Hawkins.
The West Point graduate who had served in the US army for 24 years before becoming a defence consultant, including to the Pentagon, also cited some empirical evidence.
'There were wild fluctuations in trade between the two countries in the last 10 years or so,' said Mr Hawkins.
'But these had nothing to do with the EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft incident, China's 1996 missile threat against Taiwan and the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade.
'They were due to the weather and climate cycles,' he pointed out.
Asked whether the US viewed Taiwan's push for constitutional reform as a move towards independence, Mr Hawkins said Washington must first decide at what point the Taiwan government 'moves from ambiguity to clear declaration of independence'.
If Washington chooses to support Taiwan's action, the result could be war with China.
Mr Hawkins also had this advice for Washington: 'To help ourselves, we should send signals to Taiwan that any changes must not give China an excuse to cross the Taiwan Strait.'
Mr Hawkins is visiting the region to gather views of the military of some countries, including China and South Korea, on the deployment of US forces here.
'Officers I spoke to from the People's Liberation Army in general welcome our presence as it has helped to keep the peace.
'However, as the US presence is not based on any clear doctrine or framework, they are also worried about our intention on Taiwan.'
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