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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Pseudo Biologist who wrote (1948)8/12/1997 3:20:00 AM
From: T. Mann   of 9719
 
Being infected with influenza and being sick is not quite the same.

I suspect that the difference in the results between the Ayerst and Aviron trials can be at least partially explained by differences in patient populations.

Influenza infection can be detected through objective measurements (viral shedding, fever, and, yes, weighing of nasal discharge, etc.) and through symptom scoring (headaches, malaise, etc) . Investigators are free to choose signs to monitor and how to interpret the results. Obviously, 6-18 months old are not as good as older children in describing their symptoms or voluntarily giving their nasal discharge so it is conceivable that similar results were reported and/or interpreted differently.

I think I should stop picking on AVIR (former Vector). All in all, it looks like a good story. However, years with biotech industry and biotech stocks tought my to be paranoidal and distrustful of companies' press releases. I will feel better when I see the data presented in a peer reviewed journal or at some conference. And then, IMHO, there will be plenty of opportunities to buy AVIR stock between $15 and $40.

T.
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