You don't know how much money I've lost following the respected and valued opinions on this thread.
WW, I think it's important to remember that this thread has for the most part kept it's focus on the fundamentals of COMS/USR. I've learned the hard way to give sayings like "60 by Friday" the same level of importance of "have a nice day", because that's really all people are saying: I feel good about COMS, you should too.
The other thing I've learned is that it's a very, very huge mistake not to keep very close tabs on what the trend is of the general market. William O'Neil, founder of IBD says when the general market is in a down-trend, most of the lessons he teaches on what & when to buy and sell WON'T work. I'm a BIG believer in following your own intuition, doing your own due diligence, research, etc., because after all, it's YOUR money, and you alone are responsible for it.
On the other hand: This thread was almost always very bullish on USRX (fundamentally) from Dec 96 on to the middle of March or so, yet the stock was in a steady down-trend. If a person had REALLY taken the bullishness to heart and believed it, a person COULD have in March 1997 simply bought call options that were out of the money by ten points or more with an expiration of Sept or Oct 97, and right now have an absolutely incredible return. This Spring, USRX traded for a good week in the $45 range, going 3 or 4 dollars above and below that at times. USRX is now at (@ 1.75 COMS exchange rate) approx $96, and has been at $105 a couple of times. Since USRX was linked with COMS in Feb, the same play could have been done with COMS options.
Of course such hind-sight is easy, and it's would coulda shoulda, but I think you see what I'm saying, in re how come people are so bullish. I didn't do as I outlined above, because at the time I (and many other people) had already lost a bunch of money in USRX, and I had really lost heart for the battle.
FYI, when I compare the PE to COMS long-term (projected) growth rate, it seems to me that COMS is now trading very close to fully valued. (30 PE, 30% growth rate). Combine this with a quarter that is not projected to have much upside surprise potential, and it's no wonder COMS has a hard time breaking $60. Not to mention there is still a huge amount of overhead supply above $60. Then again, if Coms come out with a 2 cent positive surprise, that could boost us to $65. One thing seems fairly obvious to me is that COMS is pretty solid at $55ish. So if you want on board for a 3 month hold, you should do very well, IMO.
Didn't mean to run-on so much, but I felt some reorientation was warranted.
DK |
