Wade, et al,
Wade, I don't have any special knowledge that would make my guess as to what is going on any better than yours. However, the XAU is not a sure gold stock index. The reason I post the Barron's GMI data is because Richard, who started this thread, observed that the XAU was not a pure PM index while the GMI was relatively pure and asked for someone to post the GMI numbers. Copper has a significant impact on the XAU and copper is doing very well. Next to nickel, I think copper has been the top mover in the base metal group so I guess I'm not surprised that the XAU ran ahead of gold for a few days. Further, gold is bumping into a lot of selling every time it gets close to $400 (the round-number gurus issue sell recs. and many obey) and it has bounced off $400 several times in the past few days, holding back the gold stocks. And, the action of lease rates suggests that BBs are still selling leased gold as it approaches $400 to cap the price.
I didn't find anything concerning PM of interest in Barron's this past week. But lease rates continue to be interesting and erratic. However, each time recently that the POG gets pushed back from the $400 area, the rates jump significantly suggesting, as mentioned above, that gold is being leased and sold into the market to hold down the price. As I mentioned last week, I'm aware that Sinclair believes that the BBs have given up trying to cap the price but the action of lease rates does not appear to support his view.
The GMI/POG ratio:
On 11/13, the Barron's GMI was 772.78 up from the previous week's 642.62. With the POG down at 396.70 (11/147) the ratio was unchanged at 1.70.
The ratio a years ago was 1.23.
Larry |
