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Technology Stocks : American Power Conversion

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To: Bob Walsh who wrote (1733)	8/12/1997 7:28:00 AM
From: Phillip Crone	of 2574

Bob, you bring back bad memories for me when I talk about the disk drive industry. I lost about 50 grand 10 years ago on Miniscribe (first 3.5" disk drive maker who landed a contract by IBM 13 years ago or so and put them on the map). Miniscribe got caught shipping bricks instead of disk drives to make their quarterly number. They finally went bankrupt. The good news is that I had a tidy capital loss to use and I eventually got about 15 grand back in a class action lawsuit. Anyway, my feelings on the disk drive market all depend upon 2 factors: One is how the Hard Drive Less internet workstations that Oracle and Microsoft are talking about take off. Having broadband power the web in the future will make information instantaneous and will decrease the demand to store bulky "non real-time" software programs on your hard drive. The second factor will be the DVD disk market. I believe that the CD format is already widely accepted and most people will feel very comfortable using a CD as your hard drive in the near future. Right now limitating factors are speed and size but will be soon resolved. Someday soon the disk drive as we know it will be like the old record player of the past. Other than your power supply the hard drive has one of the few remaining moving parts in your PC. Short term you could find interesting plays but long term I wouldn't put my money in the Hard drive sector. I've got my eye on companies who might benefit from increased speed and aceptance from the Web. Companies like Land's End, LLBean etc.... By the way, the next wave of UPS purchases should come from the home user like myself who love the Web so much that we don't want to risk being down during a power outage. It has nothing to do with the value of my computer system or my data, just my time, just like in business. Take Care, Phillip

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