So Shack (or anyone)... I need e-waveducation here.
On INTC, looking at the 60 minute, I clearly see the flat, nicely in what would be a wave 4 position. The 2 was sharpish, even. On the SMH, the "b" low was even a lower low.
On the NDX, though, I get confused, particularly if I look at the S+P, too. Bear with me. NDX could be making the same flat, with an aggressive "b" lower low. Or that move coulda been the end of a 5 waver quite clearly... thus being different than INTC/SMH. That 5er would been the 3 down, and we're just today starting a 4 (which could easily last the rest of this week). To complicate things... if the right count on the NDX is to say that it had a truncated 5th or C up, and we should count it starting where the S+P did, well, then I am totally not sure where we'd be in the count. 2 up? 4 of 1?
The S+P presents a variant on the problem
stockcharts.com[w,a]ehclyyay[d20][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,10!lp14,3,3!la12,26,9!ll14][J19889830,Y]&pref=G
The last two days could be a 4, but the 2 woulda only been half a day. The low at the end of Tuesday had minor divergences in RSI, ADX, etc. Is that indicative of a "b" low? Or did it mean the end of 5 of 1/A??? How does one know? Is it simply "how high we retrace?" that clues us in? Are there hints I'm not seeing in volume, or in something else? Maybe one clue is the OEX, which did NOT make a new low on what mighta been the 5 down. Maybe it truncated? How does one know?
Medium term it doesn't matter. There should be another move down a few days. However, we could start a 3 down tomorrow, and that would be worth noting and jumping on. But it's expiry week, too, so that kinda would make me lean (now) towards choppy up tomorrow. (Jobless claims, leading indicators, and Philly Fed before the market. Maybe I know what's up by the time I wake up!)
Sorry for the rambling, but this is one area where I've often had problems.
the freep |
