Hillary for President?
Decision 2004
By Michael DeSenne
November 20, 2003
THERE'S SOMETHING about Hillary.
Despite repeated assurances from the former first lady that she won't run for president in 2004, a broad swath of voters refuses to give up hope that the New York senator will launch an 11th-hour bid for the White House. According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, an astonishing 43% of Democrats surveyed would back Hillary Clinton if she entered the race. Gen. Wesley Clark placed a distant second, with just 10% of the vote. Excluding Clinton, Clark's support jumped to 17%, a four-point edge over Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and ex-Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.
"Despite the hoopla over Dean and Clark, if you put Mrs. Clinton into the mix she wipes them out," says Maurice Carroll, director of the nonpartisan Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Hamden, Conn. "Usually when we put her in [the poll] no one else gets into double digits."
Many Democrats see Clinton as the best hope to unseat George Bush next November for some legitimate reasons, says Carroll. Right off the bat, she's a celebrity with unquestionable name recognition. Next, she has built a track record of legislative successes while holding office in New York. Third, and perhaps most tellingly, she sparks broad-based enthusiasm among Democratic voters, something the current crop of candidates has failed to do.
"You have a bunch of respectable, justifiable candidates who have every reason to believe they could still be there at the end," says Carroll. "But none of them has lit a fire under voters."
Though it's early in the primary season, with the Iowa caucus still two months away, Dean has been the lone candidate to build any momentum among the party faithful. Yet some observers argue that his blunt talk and blustery antiwar stance would make it difficult for him to triumph in a national election. While Dean's supporters would certainly differ with that view, there's reason enough for pause.
The lack of a consensus favorite underscores the utter ambivalence among Democratic voters. While Dean has a wide lead in New Hampshire over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt is neck-and-neck with Dean in Iowa. In South Carolina, which holds its primary in February, Clark has the most support, followed by Sen. John Edwards of neighboring North Carolina.
Yet not everyone agrees there's widespread dissatisfaction with the current slate of candidates.
"Every four years at about this time there's talk of somebody else jumping in the race," says Democratic pollster David Cantor, "but I don't think there's more of a clamor for another candidate now than there has been in the past."
In fact, Cantor, who doesn't work for any of the presidential hopefuls, thinks a leader has already emerged, making it even less likely that an undeclared candidate would jump into the fray.
"Historic patterns suggest that Dean is moving into a position that he's going to be tough to catch," says Cantor. He points out that Dean has growing popular support, a formidable war chest and much-needed endorsements from big unions. "I'm skeptical that Hillary Clinton — or anyone else — would get into the race at this point. Look at Clark. He was supposed to be the knight in shining armor, but he hasn't done nearly as well as some thought he would."
Quinnipiac's Carroll says that while it's highly unlikely that Clinton would enter the race, it's conceivable she'd throw down the gauntlet if Bush appears beatable in the coming months. That's not a stretch, considering the president's sinking approval numbers. Despite recent spurts in economic growth and hiring, the president's approval rating has fallen to 51% from 71% in April, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released last week, as unemployment remains stubbornly high and the hard slog in Iraq continues.
As Carroll sees it, Clinton wouldn't want to wait until 2012 to run, something she'd be forced to do if another Democrat topples Bush next year. The Journal poll puts the president in a virtual dead heat with a generic opponent. So Clinton, who turns 65 in 2012, might be tempted to jump in now if the gap between Bush and Democratic contenders continues to shrink -- especially if the party is still seeking a consensus candidate ahead of the Super Tuesday primaries in early March.
"It seems to me that it's highly unlikely we'll come out of New Hampshire [in late January] with just a couple of candidates," he says.
For the record, a Clinton spokesman insists the senator has no plans to give up her office at the Capitol before her term ends in January 2007, regardless of the electoral scenario. But Carroll isn't swallowing that line.
"I don't believe her," says Carroll, who thinks she'll bide her time until 2008 only if Bush appears to be a shoe-in next November. "But if she decides to run in 2004 — boom! — she's a front-runner right off the bat," he says. "What we show is that Hillary Clinton is far and away the commanding Democrat. At this stage she's not only the sentimental favorite but the clear poll leader."
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