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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: mishedlo who wrote (268277)11/20/2003 5:32:05 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
Mark-to-Market levelled a mighty blast at Lance Lewis' increasingly noisy call for a top in gold shares (from CapitalStool.com):

capitalstool.com

Lance Lewis keeps pounding the table, warning of a sharp correction in the gold shares. He says the gold stocks have already priced in $450 - $550 gold.

Other gold stock bulls continue to exercise extreme caution. The last time gold was at $400 in 1996-1997, it was in a BEAR MARKET RALLY. Here are some 1997 prices:

XAU = 150
NEM = 60
AU = 55
DROOY = 12
GSS = 20
BGO = 9

What kind of gold price was being discounted back then? $700??

Now we are in a NEW BULL MARKET, yet people are freaked out at much lower prices on the gold stock shares.

And maybe $500 gold is already priced in. But I can tell you what was NOT priced in during 1997:

- Tripling of the size of FRE and FNM.

- An explosion in Derivative Exotica, Securitization Exotica

- A giant U.S. Dollar Bubble

- Record levels of T-Bones floating around.

- Even higher levels of Mortgage Backed paper floating around

- Unheard of record amount of intervention in all financial markets, the greatest of all time.

- The beginning of the Wheelbarrow Economy, coinciding with a historic explosion in the CRB Index.

Sounds bullish for gold stocks to me. At least compared to 1997……
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