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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (41819)11/20/2003 10:22:29 PM
From: que seria  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Maurice: I greatly doubt the decision-makers in Taiwan and
China are nutty enough to prompt/start a war. Consider:

1. The island would suffer greatly even if the U.S. intervened and prevented a successful invasion. Why risk all when there is a de facto state of independence?

2. The U.S. intervening would lead to lasting enmity between the U.S. and China, and the U.S. can't afford to alienate China now that we're increasingly dependent upon its credit and factories.

3. China would suffer a large and lasting economic blow--and if it failed to conquer, a bigger blow to its image.

4. No one is going to start nuking anyone even if the U.S. were to give air and naval support to Taiwan. And the U.S. might not, which is another reason Taiwan will compromise.

5. Given 1-4, the adults in charge will ultimately reach a face-saving way out of the rhetorical box that some are putting their nations in.

If India and Pakistan, Israel and Egypt/Syria, and a host of African "nations" can stay out of war despite very significant cultural/religious/historical hostility, I'm sure that people sharing a common heritage on each side of the Taiwan Strait can manage to do so. They have a lot of life, wealth and momentum to preserve and nurture.
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