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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (12601)11/21/2003 7:19:57 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) of 95611
 
RtS, As I am sure you are well aware, both MTSN and CMOS are volatile stocks and they have come a long way since last October and March. They fell very hard prior to last October so they had a lot of bounce in them - just like many of the other stocks in the Group.

While both stocks look good on the monthly charts you presented(most other stocks in the Group also look good on that scale), the daily action of each chart hasn't been all that good lately. Both are down about 15 percent from their highs earlier this month. That in itself may be OK since a lot of strong stocks are also down during this past pull back, but the question is - how are they going to do going forward.

If you look at the analyst consensus data, both stocks are not as "good looking" as many others in the Group. CMOS still has negative earnings(only 1 of 2 stocks in the table with this dubious characteristic, the other is EGLS), and MTSN is sporting a next year's PE of around 65 based on 0.22 cents in in next year's earnings. The PEG is over 3, one of the worst in the table.

Having said all of the above, both stocks may go on to do very well, but I think they have a lot of anticipation already priced into the stock. Their earnings have further to go than many of the stocks in the Group to justify their present prices, let alone possible future price increases.

I am updating the tables in the next few posts based on today's closing prices. From that you will be able to see the status based upon today's closing prices.

Don
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