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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
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To: American Spirit who wrote (497095)11/22/2003 5:33:52 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (2) of 769670
 
re: Bush polls

It is much worse than you imply. Same with the times poll. You need to look at all these polls in the same context. I can't see how Bush can overcome this.

Bush took a MAJOR hit this last week in the polls, I think it might be the London protests.

I don't think an incumbent can win an election with 33% saying they are CERTAIN to vote against Bush. Those are the "negative" ratings that pollsters sometimes measure. Bush's negatives are off the scale, and his positives are kindof even with the dems. That makes a loss for Bush.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, would you say you are certain to vote for Bush, you are probably going to vote for him, you are leaning toward voting for him, you are unsure about voting for or against him, you are leaning against voting for him, you are probably going to vote against him, or would you say you are certain to vote against Bush?" Options rotated

.

%
Certain to vote for Bush 24
Probably going to vote for Bush 13
Leaning toward voting for Bush 7
Unsure 13
Leaning against voting against Bush 4
Probably going to vote against Bush 6
Certain to vote against Bush 33

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?" Form A (N=501 registered voters)

Bush Democrat Can't Say (vol.) None/Won't Vote Don't Know
% % % % %
11/10-13/03 41 43 12 1 3
10/20-21/03 46 34 16 0 4
9/28 - 10/1/03 44 44 7 1 4
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