Another input from CNNMoney for the coming week(s)
money.cnn.com
<<Time to eat?
The market may shake off its torpor during Thanksgiving week.
November 23, 2003: 8:06 AM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Thanksgiving is waddling its way toward us, and if history is any guide, that should stuff some cheer into a Wall Street that needs it badly.
The Thanksgiving week is typically good for the stock market. The Wednesday before and the Friday after the big feast have put together gains in the Dow Jones industrial average for 41 of the last 50 years. Often enough, that marks the beginning of a rally that takes the market into the end of year.
The making of such a move may be in the works this time around, thinks Credit Suisse Asset Management managing director Stanley Nabi. He believes that the pressure that the market has faced during November is due not just to rekindled worries over global security, but to aggressive investors who have been busy taking profits on a good year.
In the weeks to come, Nabi expects that investors will begin to realize that fourth-quarter earnings, like third-quarter earnings, will be far better than the market currently expects.
A number of factors, beyond the still-improving economy, are converging to improve the outlook. First off, oil prices have not, as analysts keep on expecting, come down yet, and that means it will be another stellar quarter for big energy concerns. Second, interest rates have not surged higher, as many market participants worried they would just a short time ago, and this should boost results at multinationals whose margins should get additional help from the weak dollar.
"All of these things are going to converge, forcing strategists to raise estimates for this year and next year," Nabi said. "That will make valuations look more reasonable." >> |
