<font color=green>Saudi King Fahd = dead? That's the FOREX rumor.</font>
AM FOREX news IN REVERSE ORDER TIMESTAMPS
OPEN QUOTE
<font color=slateblue>Mon Nov 24 05:24:00 2003(EST)
**** 24 Nov 2003 : 10:24 - FX NOW! EUR/USD, EUR/CHF Flows/Buzz - Saudi rumour added to the mix
A rumour that Saudi Arabia's King Fahd has died has been added to the mix to explain away the EUR fall and the USD recovery, but unless you use the 'risk reduction' theory it doesn't really stack up, especially as the CHF is not gaining any ground. We would also point out that King Fahd has not been in effective control of the country for several years. We would expect that even a market as extended as this would still sell USD on any chance of regime change. PB
**** 24 Nov 2003 : 10:11 - FX NOW! EUR/USD Flows/Buzz - Stops, more stops, and remember the supranational ....
Plenty of stop loss action on EUR/USD, with a large Swiss Bank seen as well up among the sellers, and re-awakening thoughts of the much rumoured EUR5bn sell order from a supranational that did several laps towards the end of last week. However, it must also be pointed out that the bank involved would also be holding a major share of any stops too, and that is why a large German bank is also getting the usual mention. PB
**** 24 Nov 2003 : 09:00 - FX NOW! EUR/USD, EUR/CHF Flows/Buzz - IMM, CTA's and Deutsche Bk/Blackstone. (Option,Equity)
What has been described as 'CTA selling of EUR - but not in large', has, nevertheless been enough to help the USD a little higher, and in the process, pushed most of the EUR crosses lower. The exception to this has been EUR/CHF, where some reversal of safety first positions taken for the weekend has been seen. It is perhaps re-positioning that has been the main factor behind this morning's price action, with some emphasis made of the much increased IMM EUR longs seen late on Friday. In the meantime, reports of an investment house purchase of 'around a yard' of 1.23 calls for value Dec 19 look to be somewhat exaggerated, and (possibly connected) suggestions that Deutsche Bank's sale of EUR1bn worth of property to the US's Blackstone Group will lead to demand for the single currency look equally off-side. Private equity groups generally tend to raise finance locally, and certainly, we understand that Blackstone have been raising EUR finance. Technical traders will note 'important support' at 1.1855. C.F.
**** 24 Nov 2003 : 04:04 - FX NOW! USD/JPY FLOWS/ Buzz - The rest of Asia are mere by-standers
Trading has thinned down due to the holiday factor. Even reports of an Iraq gas pipeline blown up near Kirkuk - made little impact on the currency market. The rest of Asia, are mere by-standers rather actively trade today. Watch stops at 108.50 and 107.50. That is, if we ever get there during Asian session.
( Analyst: Suresh Kumar 65-6236-0397 )
( Email: s.kumar@forecastweb.com )
**** 24 Nov 2003 : 02:50 - FX NOW! AUD/USD, AUD/JPY FLOWS/ Buzz - The range stays narrow for AUD/USD, Uridashi
A mild knee jerk reaction in AUD/JPY when Australia's NSW Treasury Corp indicated it has issued AUD 212 mn of bonds to retail Japanese investors. The Uridashi issuance gave FX traders down under something to chew upon, however Tokyo holiday seems to have cut short the price action in AUD/JPY. Managing to chalk of gains worth 10 points only to test of 78.77. Meanwhile AUD/USD keeps up its narrow trading range, around 0.7230. The after effects of the rugby final - showing its colour!.
( Analyst: Suresh Kumar 65-6236-0397 )
( Email: s.kumar@forecastweb.com )
**** 24 Nov 2003 : 01:01 - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY FLOWS/ Buzz - Will China retaliate? trade the talking point in Asia
China - US trade spat - First it was quota on textiles, now its anti dumping duties on iron pipe fittings, in coming weeks, cheap furnitures from the middle kingdom may be next. The trade war between China and the US deepens by the week. China's response - nothing so far, aside from complaining to the WTO. However market talk suggest otherwise. A lot more traders, analysts and economists these days are calculating China's next move which includes the risk US Treasuries being dumped (Chinese officials have said they would not do so - well we never know). Having the second largest FX reserves (more than USD 350 bn - as of end September), has its advantages, and with most of these reserves spent buying US Treasuries, Washington seems to be playing a dangerous game if Beijing retaliates. USD/JPY has showed no reaction to these scenario, and with Tokyo on holiday, dealers are more interested in talking about the trade spat rather than actively reflecting their ideas in the FX market. Narrow range this morning around 108.81 - 108.91 but watch this space, the dragon may eventually make its move, and it may be time to run for cover, possibly taking refuge in the EUR?.
( Analyst: Suresh Kumar 65-6236-0397 )
( Email: s.kumar@forecastweb.com )</font> |
