I try to do some homework : if we look at price/sales ratio for legend stocks, we find as of today (according to Yahoo) : CSCO/9.16, MSFT/16.22, ATI (Ibexx favorite, that's a good one I'd say <g>) 5.33, CPQ/2.07, DELL/3.69, ORCL/6.49, BAY/2.87 and COMS/3.19.
Back-up from bad times as far as I could check on long-term graps may be 50% or even more than 75% (Intel in its early days, who got the balls then ???).
Now of we look at the HDTV market, which is likely to merge with the PC/home appliance market (do some homework and check latest toys in Akihabara or CompUsa (Fry's is pass‚ to me)from Compaq, Toshiba, Sony, Gateway, etc; merging TV, Internet connection, phone answering, DVD, home theater stuff, you name it (may be not coffee yet)), we are talking worldwide of a replacement market for televisions in the figures of 500 million units over ten years, not to speak of opening markets in Asia.
I don't knwo how much DRAM or other RMBS related licensing stuff may represent, but I agree that RMBS yearly sales have a chance to be in 5 years in the $billion range. Now take the current Microsoft 16 price/sales ratio sounds sensible for a fast growing company like RMBS! Rambus is not THAT overpriced currently at 46 if we expect a sales growth of 1000% this year ! (getting them into the $200M range for 98). But 50% downwards corrections would not surprise me.
Please feel free to yell at me :=)
MiB |
