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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: steve susko who wrote (2587)11/25/2003 12:00:06 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Steve - The accuracy of my equity forecasts is so suspect that it is probably best for me not to state it in case anyone was silly enough to follow it. However, I will try.

My general policy right now is to short bounces and I think we SHOULD have a rather sharp pullback to perhaps spoos 965 or so.

On a political standpoint that would probably be best (for Bush who I loathe) as it would provide more fuel for a rally heading into the election.

Everone is waiting to short this bounce it seems.
That tells me it either is over very soon and we never get to 2000 naz and 10K dow OR we blast way higher on a stall there that everyone shorts and gets stopped out on a retest.
IF the latter scenario happens, I think it will mark THE top and over three years we fall all the way back and more giving up 150% of this rally. If we die right here right now, there is no fuel for either a decline or too much of a rally and perhaps we just chop around for quite some time (until election or the market perceives Bush is going to lose).

In either case DOW 5000 QQQ 15 and SPX 500 are givens but it might take 5 years or longer to get there.

None of this is tradeable IMO.
I do think Greenspan not hiking as much as Eurodollar futures imply is very very tradeable (at least until the election)

M
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