Dean "surging" in Florida, Kerry "imploding", funning fifth. Bush beating them all.
info.mgnetwork.com
Nov 25, 2003
Dean Close 2nd To Lieberman In State Poll
By KEITH EPSTEIN
kepstein@tampatrib.com
WASHINGTON - Far from his Northern base, Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean is surging in the Sunshine State, threatening to displace South Florida favorite Joe Lieberman, a poll for The Tampa Tribune showed Monday.
John Kerry is faltering across Florida, meanwhile, underscoring weakness elsewhere that threatens his viability two months before the nation's presidential primaries begin.
``Kerry is imploding,'' said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. ``Unless there's a miracle for him, it's difficult to see him winning. And for Dean to be so high in Florida, that's surprising. It's not his natural base.''
Only 6 percent of Democrats said they would choose Kerry if Florida's primary were held now, according to Mason- Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the survey Nov. 17-21 for the Tribune and WFLA, News Channel 8.
That put the Massachusetts senator far behind Lieberman, the Connecticut senator who gained popularity in South Florida's Jewish and Democratic strongholds when he was the vice presidential nominee in 2000. Lieberman led the poll with 21 percent support, just ahead of the 17 percent for former Vermont Gov. Dean.
The Lieberman and Dean numbers were within the 5 percentage point error margin for the portion of the poll that interviewed 379 Democrats likely to vote in the primary. Other questions were directed to an overall telephone sampling of 625 random voters of various political affiliations, with an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Wesley Clark, the retired general whose recent splash into the race gained attention, fared well in the poll, with 14 percent of Democrats. The only other candidate in double digits was Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri, at 11 percent.
Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, the only Southerner in the race since Florida Sen. Bob Graham pulled out, won a paltry 3 percent of Democratic support. His name wasn't recognized by 54 percent of everyone surveyed.
The only other candidate drawing more than 1 percent of the surveyed Democrats was political activist Al Sharpton, with 4 percent.
None of the Democrats fared well against President Bush. Reflecting national surveys, the Florida poll placed the Republican at least 20 percentage points ahead of every major potential opponent.
In a hypothetical race, Bush would lead Lieberman by 56 percent to 36 percent, Gephardt by 58 percent to 36 percent, Dean by 59 percent to 36 percent and Kerry by 57 percent to 34 percent.
It would be a mistake to draw too many conclusions from the survey, however, which also showed 23 percent of voters undecided. In other words, media coverage, campaign tactics, missteps - and, ultimately, events in other primary and caucus states - are likely to hold strong influence over what happens when Floridians vote March 9.
``The primaries before Florida will change these numbers substantially,'' Sabato said.
Bush Approval Drops
Still, there are points for the campaigns to consider.
Women were divided almost evenly in hypothetical races between Bush and the leading Democrats, favoring Bush over Lieberman 47 percent to 45 percent, over Dean 51 percent to 43 percent, over Clark 48 percent to 42 percent, and over Kerry 49 percent to 42 percent.
The president's approval ratings also show the same decline in Florida registered by polls elsewhere - and typical of virtually every president in his third year since John F. Kennedy.
In February 2001, 43 percent of surveyed Floridians said they thought Bush was doing an ``excellent'' job. That figure dropped to 19 percent in this poll.
Meanwhile, 22 percent said he is doing a ``poor job,'' compared with 6 percent in January 2002.
``A majority of Florida voters currently say they approve of Bush's handling of the country's two most important issues: the situation in Iraq and the economy,'' said pollster Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.
Trouble For Kerry
On the Kerry front, the candidate has acknowledged campaign troubles in recent days.
Kerry once was perceived as an early front-runner. Unlike Dean, he's a decorated military veteran. Unlike Dean, he has experience in Washington. And he was seen as a candidate with strength in raising big money. He even has big money of his own, having married into the Heinz ketchup fortune.
Yet today it seems plausible the New Englander could lose the first primary, in New Hampshire, which will be held in nine weeks on Jan. 27. Dean, another familiar face in neighboring New Hampshire, holds the lead there.
Kerry may be in trouble even in Massachusetts, which votes March 2. Dean leads by 9 percentage points, according to a Nov. 19-21 survey of likely primary voters by RKM Research and Communications, released Monday by The Boston Herald.
On Sunday, The Boston Globe reported, two other polls showed Dean and Kerry in a statistical dead heat.
Kerry has fired his campaign manager, watched as other aides quit, and decided to use some of his own money to pay for TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Stephanie Cutter, a Kerry spokeswoman, said late Monday: ``The only poll that counts is the poll on Election Day. And John Kerry is fighting for every vote and intends to win.''
Reporter Keith Epstein can be reached at (202) 662-7673. |
