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Kashmir ceasefire - will it last?
news.bbc.co.uk
By Jill McGivering
BBC World Affairs analyst
The announcement by India on Monday that it too will sign up to a Kashmir ceasefire - and make Pakistan's unilateral offer bilateral - will be greeted with enthusiastic applause by the international community.
A generation has grown up with militancy and the military
The world is eager to encourage better relations, all too conscious of the threat of conflict between the two nuclear neighbours.
Any hint of generous political gestures from either side is more reassuring to the outside world than the bursts of hostile rhetoric which usually characterise the long-standing dispute on Kashmir.
But there's a definite sense of political brinksmanship.
India has not only matched Pakistan's offer of a ceasefire along the de facto border in Kashmir, it claims to have trumped it by going a step further.
As well as the Line of Control (LoC) it says, the ceasefire will also extend to the Siachen glacier, further north.
Looming summits
Whilst not wanting to give ground, both sides want to be seen as peace-makers and to appear in the eyes of the international community - especially Washington - as initiators of a positive political process.
Maintaining troops in Kashmir is a strain on both sides' defence budgets
Both want to foster an image that they're really trying hard to find solutions, despite having their patience tested by the intransigence of their difficult neighbour.
But even if the motivations are more closely associated with international public relations than a genuine desire to settle long-standing differences, it is still good news.
The atmosphere seems more conducive to progress now than at any time since the failed Agra summit in 2001.
And it is considerably better than the dangerous descent into hostility 18 months ago, which nearly sparked an outright war.
With an important regional summit, Saarc, looming in January, the focus can turn comfortably to other issues without business being overshadowed by fears of imminent threat from Indo-Pakistan tensions.
More minor concessions, of trade and transport for example, have bolstered a sense that progress just might be possible.
Melting snows
Despite a change in mood music, though, the ceasefire is still a long way from a real breakthrough.
Civilians take cover as an Indian soldier responds to firing
Many analysts question how much of a concession each side is making.
The areas involved are at high altitude. With the onset of winter, there's far less movement and fewer clashes.
Crisis times for Kashmir usually erupt around May when the snows finally melt and the issue of militant infiltrations into Indian Kashmir reawakens.
India accuses Pakistan's military of enabling militants to cross into Indian Kashmir by diverting the Indian military's attention with hostile onslaughts and offering fire cover.
Pakistan denies this - but for the next few months, of frozen winter conditions and minimal movement, it's a largely academic argument.
India feels the Muslim minority in Kashmir affirms its secular status
A more significant test will be whether the ceasefire can endure when the snows do melt next spring - and if it did, what impact that had on India's reports of illegal cross-LoC movement and militant activity.
In the meantime, there's no sign of movement on the fundamental issues of contention - such as India's allegations about Pakistan's continuing practical support of militants and Pakistan's denials.
Until there is progress on those substantial but much tougher questions, it's hard to see how India and Pakistan can move forward to real negotiations on Kashmir and a permanent end to hostilities that can outlast the melting of the Kashmiri snows. |
