Charles,
You do know that Intel's 64 bit offering is "non-x86," right? So is their future bleak? Are you predicting that AMD (whose 64 bit offering IS "x86") will come out on top?
There are a lot of rumors that Intel will eventually come out with 64-bit x86 chip (as time goes on, it will most likely be compatible with AMD variant, because of time to market of OS and software support - it will be all in place already).
I think Intel is giving Itanium 1 more year to gain traction, and if not, 64 bit extenssions to x86 will be enabled most likely in Tejas / Potomac processors, and Itanium will be abandoned to the death spiral that met all non-x86 processors - retreat to narrower and narrower niches, cut in future investments, life support, eventual cancellation.
IMO, the question of whether AMD will come out on top depends on whether Intel sticks with x86 with 64 bit extensions. If so, Intel and AMD will be slugging it out for years to come. If Itanium is Intel's only 64 bit ticket, I think AMD will come on top of the server market. It is already there, performance-wise vs. Xeon, by a significant margin.
Joe |
