The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: ild who wrote (2615)	11/25/2003 5:38:40 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) of 110194

(I'm banned from CFZ -- not that I want to post there -- but I noticed that you posted the energy pulse article) I've been reading the report referenced by the energy pulse article -- there are some interesting stats there ... here's one: >>To understand the effects of increased drilling activities, the NPC analyzed the supply response from the lower-48 states associated with doubling of rig activity in 2000/2001. There were limited opportunities in more prolific areas. Most of the additional drilling occurred in basins where low initial rates and low well recoveries were to be expected. Thus, the supply response was less than 5% of lower-48 production even with a doubling of rig activity. << For all the articles that I've read (bullish long term) -- I still have one missing piece -- all these articles claim that power generation is the largest growth segment of nat gas demand -- that has certainly been true in the last few years. Now their predictions have some moderation in the growth for the next 2-3 years, but then after that it picks up the pace again -- I'm wondering about the basis for that -- maybe I will get on EIA and see what they are saying Another thing I don't have a handle on is electric use sensitivity to GDP or GNP -- I believe the real recession starts next year and that this will have a real chilling effect on that growth in nat gas usage for electricity -- heating demand will probably continue to track, but I think they are overestimating electric demand part ... OTOH -- I think even that NPC report is too freakin' optimistic concerning new supply. Right now there is a whole bunch of attention on the very bullish long term supply issues which is buoying the NG stocks, IMO. I think we may be setting up for a near term disappointment there. Something else that is of interest to me there is the industrial demand that has left the US since 1998 / 1999. How much MORE industrial demand has the option of leaving the US??

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next