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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: yard_man who wrote (2625)11/26/2003 12:08:47 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Weather will be the key, and here's y boy Joe Bastardi's call for a colder winter, especially in Dec.

PDO Arctic Outbreaks

The discovery in 1996 that there is a slow fluctuation of water temperatures in the northern Pacific has led to a new term: Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Those temperatures are turning colder.

"In the cold phase of the PDO, there is overall less typhoon activity. The El Ninos that do occur tend to (produce) a much colder and snowier signal across the eastern and southern United States," Bastardi said.

The El Nino winter of 1969-70 happened during a PDO cold phase, he said.

A high number of tropical storms usually is a sign that the Atlantic Ocean wants to play a bigger role in the weather patterns.

The warmer-than-normal waters of the Atlantic Ocean not only helped spawn 12 tropical storms or hurricanes, but they can also produce lethargic high-pressure systems that block or slow down the progression of storms across the United States, Bastardi said.

The Blizzard of '78 that January was an instance of a storm that roared out of the Gulf then combined with two other storms and locked in place over Lake Erie, he said.

In those instances, the jet stream yo-yos up and down.

"That is a dangerous weather pattern -- one that is conducive to Arctic outbreaks," Bastardi said.
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