What I don't understand is why would Turkey automatically invade Kurdistine if the people there voted for independence and a separate statehood?
There are 15 million Kurds in Turkey, as opposed to 4 million in Iraq. Turkey’s Kurds have long agitated for independence, most recently through the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), a Marxist group that fought an extended guerilla war with the Turks from 1984 to 1999, when PKK head Abdullah Ocalan was captured. Around 40,000 people died in the fighting, which involved ambushes, raids, and bombings, with the PKK fighters generally taking refuge over the Iraqi border. The PKK call themselves freedom fighters (they have also figured out that “Workers Party” is way too 1970s, and renamed themselves the Congress for Freedom and Democracy in Kurdistan, though the ideology remains the same). The Turks call them terrorists. Uncle Sam has traditionally agreed with the Turks, and the PKK is on the State Dept.’s list of certified terrorist groups.
That’s why the Turkish military is so eager to get a foothold in northern Iraq: they see a resurgence in their own Kurdish rebel movement as entirely likely, and they think – not without reason – that an independent Kurdistan would be both a safe haven and a source of weaponry for Kurdish separatists fighting in Turkey.
What authority does Turkey have in the affairs of their Kurdish brothers to the south? Or better put, what authority do they *perceive* they have?
The same authority that the Americans perceive they have in the affairs of their brothers in Afghanistan: that of a country threatened by a terrorist movement that is receiving aid and refuge from an outside source. If 40,000 Americans had been killed in fighting with a rebel group that was receiving aid from and taking refuge in northern Mexico, how long do you figure it would take us to send troops? Of course the PKK call themselves "Freedom Fighters", not terrorists, but since we've already acknowledged them as terrorists it will be a bit tough to change our minds.
Seems to me Turkey should be happy a democratic Kurdistine is taking shape next door.
A democratic Kurdistan isn’t taking shape next door. An independent Kurdistan may be, but the chances of democracy are pretty slim. Yes, I know that before the invasion of Iraq we were told all about how the Kurds had established a lovely free market democracy, but remember, the people telling that story were the same ones who were telling us that Saddam was sitting on a vast horde of WMD.
The dominant political groups in Kurdistan are the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and they have traditionally spent far more effort in trying to kill each other than in fighting any of the many enemies of the Kurds. The two groups spent ’94 and ’95 in a civil war over a nonexistent country. In ’96, a few months after signing a peace accord, the KDP joined forces with Saddam in an effort to stomp out the PUK. The PUK took a few in the nose and was driven back to the Iranian border, but with a spate of aid from Teheran (which was also arming PUK’s arch-enemy, the Islamic Unity Movement of Kurdistan (IUMK), later to metamorphose into Ansar-al-Islam) they were able to come back and fight to a temporary draw. In ’99 the KDP got into it with the PKK, and the PUK took advantage of the distraction to launch a new offensive against the KDP, which the KDP was able to repel by inviting the Turkish military to enter the fight. Another somewhat nominal peace accord was signed after that round.
After 2001 – specifically after September, 2001 – one of two things happened. Either the rival Kurdish groups were simultaneously possessed by the shades of Gandhi, Jefferson, and Adam Smith, and became a delightful free-market democracy, or they decided to temporarily put on a show of cooperation in hopes of getting Baba Sam to add a stamp of approval for an independent Kurdistan to his campaign against Saddam. Being a born cynic, I’m inclined to the latter view, and my guess is that if the Iraqi Kurds ever get their freedom the first thing the KDP and PUK will do is start killing each other all over again. The combination of a civil war and a terrorist haven would be an open invitation to Turkish intervention. That, in turn, would cause a cheerful Kurds-vs-Turks guerilla war, but hey, it’s a tradition.
In short, don’t look for a happy ending there any time soon. |
