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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: profile_14 who wrote (27458)	11/27/2003 9:29:17 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) of 206180

Statistically speaking, if I look at a normal distribution for Winter season HDD for the last 10 to 30 Winter seasons, one standard deviation from the mean population weighted HDD season totals ~240 HDD. Estimating the impact on storage drawdowns with 240 less HDD for the season leaves us at roughly 1,000 bcf in storage. Since it is an 84.13% probability that we will have weather cooler than 1 SD warmer for the season and even with a 1 SD warmer Winter we still drawdown storage to a low level, I am comfortable staying fully invested and using margin on occasion. BTW my accuweather local 15 day forecast improved significantly this morning.

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