Dem Convention works this way: If no candidate is the clear frontrunner with ability to get 50%, or if a coalition challenges that candidate (in this case possibly Dean) and stops a first ballot nomination, the wheeling and dealing begins. Yes, if a candidate like Dean were to come to the convention in first place but without the party's support and enough allies, then we could see the anyone-but-Dean forces nominate their own man and possibly win by a landslide.
By February we should know if this is likely to be in the cards. Deanies are hoping Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire thereby knocking down Kerry and Gephardt. With a strong showing in south Carolina and Michigan, Dean could then knock down Edwards and knock out Gephardt. Kerry might is too damaged by then too meaning only Clark is left standing with Lieberman as an also-ran deal-broker.
Even if this Dream-dream scenario happens, there are no winner take all states and the party leaders control 37% of the delegates no matter which way the voters go. Therefore, even if Dean were to win say 35% of the total delegates (a magnificent performance) tied to vote counts, he could he 15% short of the nomination, and the other five top candidates would have more delegates than him.
That is when the top five and the DNC-DLC have to decide who amongst them deserves the nomination and can best beat Bush. If they cannot decide on any of the five also-rans then enter Al Gore as the clear and logical choice. Gore could also enter the race in February and qualify for the California primary like RFK did. With the others' endorsements, he's in, and could make Clark his Veep. Clark might end up being the #2 delegate winner.
However, none of this will happen if Dean can be slowed down prior to february. Dean hasn't won anything yet, he just has an energized base of anti-war types behind him. What he really needs is to blow out everyone else, a tough task.
Dean has already pledged to support whomever the nominee is. He knows better than anyone how he can only be noninated with a smashing performance in the primaries, getting very close to 50% by convention time. IMHO that is very unlikely. |
