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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 57.37

+0.9%

Dec 8 3:59 PM EST

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To: arnie h who wrote (9600)	11/29/2003 8:31:20 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (1) of 52153

Hi arnie, Re: Your suggested "Medco" solution I would ask could the US govt "certify" limited channels? If so, your suggested solution works at the first level. However, the concept still faces retaliation of the drug companies. Last I knew, 9 companies had announced their intention to only export to distributors in Canada that would not back ship to the US. US drug companies depend on market stratification as a means of maximizing revenues/profits. It fails if the drug companies do not cut off reimportation. The drug companies MUST win this battle. If they do not, the pricing structure necessary to support new drug development in the US fails. I would argue that the marginal revenue/profits that US companies get from export is a small subsidy to the US in its efforts to deliver the best drugs in the world. That is not the prevailing view - even among the educated. If the pricing structure ends we will see a decline in the whole drug industry. The degree of revenue restriction or decline will dictate the vitality of the industry. ij

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