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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Bilow who wrote (120689)11/30/2003 1:03:31 AM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
over the short term, Taiwan has enough of an air force that it is unlikely that China could invade.

That all depends on if the Taiwanese are able to preserve their airfields in the face of a Chinese missile assault.

I would concur that it would currently be difficult for Bejing to take Taiwan by force, but don't rule out the ingenuity and power of the mainland Chinese.

After all, though you conveniently note that Hitler and Churchill "glowered" at one another for years before an invasion was possible by either side, it ignores the fact that Hitler's Luftwaffe nearly achieved air superiority over Britain in 1940. Had he not decided to switch from bombing British airfields to bombing cities (in retalitation for a British bombing of Berlin) the RAF would likely have been overwhelmed and wiped out in that aerial war of attrition.

In such an event the British Navy would have been ineffective in thwarting a German invasion of the UK. The British army had been rendered combat ineffective at Dunkirk, lacking weapons and equipment to repel invaders.

In sum, I don't discount the threat as much as you do, but I also recognize that Bejing knows it has FAR too much to lose economically were it to attempt a military invasion.

Hawk
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