Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (42167)	11/30/2003 3:02:40 AM
From: pezz	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<<You tended to, or at least seemed to, deliberately ignore the macro>> Yes indeedy...As is the custom of one who prides himself a stock picker and is unsure of what the macro brings . I'm up at least 150% since January 1 while being in cash on average to the tune on about 25% to 30%...Now I do not deny that I had the wind at my back all year...But I don't think it wuz quite as easy as you make it appear. As to 1999 I have said this before more stocks on the NASDAQ as a whole closed down for the year than up ...Having said that I of course recognize that the index's went through the roof. They were packed with high flying large Cap stuff. When you look at the whole NAZ and judge by number and not capitalization you see mostly small stocks....I lost big time in 99... << you got into the Newmont Mining trade in a hurry,...your action was a result of a blend of motivations.>> It seemed to me that this wuz a natural trade as you would say but not entirely for the same reasons you generally espouse. Ya see I saw that the dollar wuz going down and every nation wanted their currency down ...OK so far we were together .But the stock mkt wuz goin up despite of itall..... Gold to me seems an insurance against TEO but without a premium!...I noticed NEM went up with gold and down less than gold...The 99 CSCO of gold stocks..A one year + option on NEM seemed the logical choice to play a continuation of the trend and Gold had just fallen 6 or 7 bucks that day to a level that seemed attractive so why would I wait? ....OK I wuz lucky... I can't make macro predictions with any conviction becauz I just think there are to many variables. Your list of dangers could happen...or not.Or another list as yet unforseen could happen ..or not..Or a list of good things could happen or not. <<Can we simply muddle through? Sure we can, until we cannot ;0)>> Well this says it all....I just haven't a clue when "we cannot" is....So in the meantime currently with about 23% cash and about 10% gold I continue long small caps which are leading the mkts onward and upward. Hoping that gold and cash will keep me away from the shopping cart should the music stop.I guess this means that I think that maybe we will see 2004 to be more of the same...But I may change my mind tomorrow.

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