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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (120697)11/30/2003 11:50:36 AM
From: h0db  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
Hawkmoon, you raise another point, albeit inadvertently, perhaps: the impact of intelligence on the outcome of conflict.

I understand that John Keegan has challenged the idea in a recent book, but some historians believe that the overwhelming intelligence advantage enjoyed by the US & the UK played crucial roles in WWII, in both the European and Pacific theaters. The role of Enigma codebreaking was not even known by historians until the early 1980s. The US enjoyed similar codebreaking success against the Japanese diplomatic and military cyphers.

One thing we don't know, and may never know, is which side holds the relative intelligence advantage on the Taiwan Strait. I would guess that Taiwan holds a technological advantage, because of its closeness to the United States. But I would have to give the human agent advantage to China.
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