Hi, Jay,
Time to visit old friends at holiday time, compare notes, dredge up old viewpoints for after-the-fact accuracy review.
I have been keeping an eye on you through lurking, and I'm impressed.
My call for a to-the-moon market in '03 was semi-right, semi-wrong.
Nasdaq stock tech investments would have been very, very good. I made a fantasy trade earlier in '03--Texas Instruments at $16 and change---that was stellar, a 61% return to date. Another fantasy trade--DeCode Genetics at $1.70-- was also wonderful as it has traded at $8+ recently.
Although I did not make a fantasy trade in INTC, I tagged it as terrific bargain at $14-16; it is now trading in the mid $30s. The two other members of the CSCO/INTC/MSFT Holy Trinity were mixed, though CSCO was a moderate winner.
Despite the stock market "surge," there was a clearly prevalent undercurrent of gloom and pessimism throughout '03; it kept me from backing up my calls with actual investments. Essentially, my view is that terrorism can change everything instantly, a reason why I think your investments in gold and commodities are wise. I've got some ready cash on hand, just in case. In the meantime, I've missed some good opportunities that my brain said I should have taken but which my heart kept me from executing.
There will be a long-term trend towards higher commodity prices that may last the better part of this decade.
Next year?
Got no clue yet, except for commodities and gold, which will indisputably trend higher, though gold may have gone as high as it might in the short term--don't see anything over $475 in '04.
Naturally, if US economic figures stay good, if there is fortunately and luckily no mega-terrorism--unlikely, I think--there may be some reason to believe things might be good in '04, though I firmly believe that the fragility of Saudi Arabia is incredibly underestimated. If the IslamoWhackos take over SA or damage its ability to provide the West with cheap oil, something I think can be done fairly easily, then we've got big problems. Which is when I'll activate my cash stash.
Happy Holidays to you and to everyone on this stellar thread.
PS: If you want to read a very entertaining book about gold, I recommend Tahir Shah's book on his Falstaffian search for King Solomon's mines--his Sorcerer's Apprentice is also a rollicking, entertaining read:
amazon.com |
