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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Brendan W who wrote (18095)11/30/2003 4:37:54 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) of 78639
 
Hi, Brendan Watt. Thanks for the update. It's interesting, because I've been a seller of some of the stocks you are buying. That makes me nervous.

Within the past year, I've sold out my substantial (for me) large and long-held position in SVM. Imo, through several changes of poor management the company has failed to capitalize on its strengths and its good cash flows. This has caught up with the stock - it's not done much in the past three years. I finally got tired of waiting, and I exited. For its strengths, the company does have a business with possibly steady revenue and good cash flows from its repeat customers, esp. w/lawn care. I've been hoping to re-enter the stock if it drops ($11.20 now) to under $10 again.

Although I've substantially sold the majority of my out-size position in BMY during the past 12 months, I still have a good position. I'm holding those shares.

I trimmed my position in CX earlier this year. Quite possibly an error. Company remains an aggressive, world-wide, very-profitable competitor. I will consider adding if the stock drops.

I recently cut my position in SWY by about 2/3. I'm still holding all ABS and KR shares (as well as VLGEA). Just don't like Mr. Burd's (SWY's Chair,CEO, & Pres) hard-nose attitude against unions. Especially after his fiasco with Dominick's acquisition, where he was responsible for losing so much SWY wealth. Not a real logical reason for selling the stock now, during a strike, but I'm selling down to a better comfort level for me. A sale for anger-reduction -g-.

I've recently seen RYN and PCL mentioned by some professional value investors. (Oakmark??) I looked at both companies but I'm not enthusiastic. PCL is a large landowner, and its timberlands will be more valuable over time, I expect. In past, this stock has mostly traded on its dividend; so when they cut the dividend last year, the stock dropped. I don't like abrupt dividend policy changes, and when this happened I left. RYN, now trading near highs, didn't look attractive to me. I'll re-look, and maybe I can ascertain if its conversion to REIT status might further benefit the stockholders.

I'm looking at PFE again with a view to upping my small position if stock drops some. Very positive PFE article in Barron's this weekend suggests to me the stock will pop up - if only temporarily - on Monday.

In addition to large pharmas, the oil drilling sector, esp. offshore, is an area that hasn't participated in the market rally. I have small positions in TDW and DO (and recently added equipment supplier NOI). I'm considering adding to DO which is at multi-year lows. (ref: Spekulatius' post here (15394)) I'll look again at TDW. The three stocks' trading patterns appear to be correlated, with TDW seeming to have less fluctuation, according Yahoo's %change graphs:

finance.yahoo.com

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Forgot to mention that I took SPC off my watch list last week when I opened an exploratory position.
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