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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing
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To: chris714 who wrote (24800)12/1/2003 11:19:37 AM
From: austrieconomist  Read Replies (1) of 39344
 
More recent (December 1) comment on gold from John Hussman:

"In gold, our simple but effective 4-indicator complex (see Going for the Gold) has shifted to a fully unfavorable stance. Our more complex and proprietary models are no different. While I do believe that precious metals have long-term merit, I am concerned that short-term traders may be playing with fire, particularly given the high volatility of gold shares and a steeply overbought condition. We currently have no position in precious metals shares. That's not investment advice or a recommendation that other investors should sell, because we're very comfortable completely missing any further advance in gold stocks that occurs in what we view as a hostile Climate. Still, the potential risks are worth noting, and investors with substantial holdings in gold here should be certain that they have a long-term horizon and a similarly patient risk tolerance."

I agree with your comment that Hussman is brilliant. He also is not a perennial "bear" on gold. But I do not have a long term perspective on Hussman's gold calls. However, on assessing the "climate" on U.S. stocks, all calls in the public domain, his work has been dead on. Gold stocks are stocks, after all, so I take his warning seriously.
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