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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 55.94-3.7%12:02 PM EST
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To: Biomaven who wrote (9615)12/1/2003 12:01:46 PM
From: Icebrg  Read Replies (3) of 52153
 
Some comments to the top three.

CTIC.
I believe the shorts are wrong here. My guess is that they have concentrated too much on the prospects for Xyotax and forgotten about the rest. According to the company they are about to receive patent protection for Trisenox giving them another 10 years worth of exclusivity (hopefully). Under the the current Orphan Drug status the market exclusivity runs out already end-2007. An extension of another 10 years (until 2018) would be a huge boost as it would enable the company to build on the unique aspects of this "drug" to a much larger extent. If the patent is strong enough to withstand challenges is of course also a consideration.

The merger with NovusPharma will bring in Pixantrone which to me looks like an very promising very late-stage drug candidate. Much better than Xyotax. More on Pixantrone at ASH.

NPSP
On thing is clear. Management and BoD types think this is a good time to cash in. There has been some 60 form 4s filed since mid July. On the other hand PREOS pre-clinical carcinogenicity did not look too bad. I suspect the heavy selling tells more about the company than the PR they issue.

CEPH
Another hate-me candidate. Sales are expanding very rapidly, but they do have problems with their two main products, which may well go generic within the next three to four years or so. During the summer the number of shares shorted more or less doubled. I believe this had more to do with the issue of the company's zero percentage convertible debt than with sales prospects a couple of years down the line.

Erik
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