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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who started this subject12/1/2003 4:35:19 PM
From: russwinter   of 110194
 
Wage and salary withholding numbers from Daily Treasury Statement.

The 10-24 to 10-30 period reported a lopsided drop of 20,236 this year vs. 22,156 last. The 10-31 to 11-6 reported a lopsided gain of 33,112 versus 31,550. Obviously this is a spill over number, or an outlier, and it would seem the best solution would be to combine the two weeks at 53,348 versus 53,706 for a 0.7% drop in W&S.

The last three weeks came in at 80,942 versus 82,065 last year, for a 1.4% drop.

Despite what the cheerleaders in the financial media might say, wage and salaries over this period have only improved very modestly (hardly a boom, at least in the United States), and in fact apples to apples (not adjusting for the tax cut) are still down year over year.

According to Trim Tabs the adjusted number (for the cut) has been growing of late. This one would bring it to about up 2.6% for the three weeks since the last available (Nov.10th) Trim Tabs.

WAGES AND SALARIES ROSE 3.3% LAST TWO & FOUR WEEKS.

Accounting for the impact of the 4% cut in tax rates effective July 1, 2003, wages and salaries subject to withholding grew by a respectable 3.3% over the past fortnight and 3.3% over the past four weeks. The year over year rate of growth has been consistent at just over under 4% for the recent past.
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