Biotech Short Candidates Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates

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To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (611)	12/1/2003 4:53:54 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 897

The most questionable aspect of this stock and its current 800 mil market cap is the fact the Kidney Cancer market is not even close to 800 mil a year. Novartis is selling about $1 billion a year of Glivec worldwide for a primary indication (CML) that has an incidence of around 4,000 patients in the US each year. Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has an incidence of over 30,000 patients a year. Currently the treatment options for RCC are very limited. If the ONXX drug works well the stock would be at least a five-bagger from here even ignoring any potential use in other indications. Now it's a long way from this trial to approval, and so ONXX looks to me to be about fairly priced today. But to claim that RCC can't ever support this stock price is clearly incorrect. Peter

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