The key to your comment is the phrase "over time". I think your scenario is a likely scenario, although none of us have crystal balls. Of course, if the govt. requires Unicom go to TD-sCDMA, all bets are off.
However, for now, the phrase "over time" is a great delimiter that I agree with. I think that anyone who feels that the GSM1x chips are going to add alot to the bottome line in the 1st half, or even through all of FY04, may be overly optimistic, and that the analysts are correct in not getting to excited at this time. In a few years, the GSM1x may be the only game in town for the majority of the handsets that are sold, but it will not happen overnight. The handset makers have to embrace the technology to give Unicom a comparable handset selection to what they have in GSM and CDMA models; and the cost of the handsets have to comparable to handset available at Mobile. Once that happens, GSM1x could be a big seller. OF course, by that time, EVDO, WCDMA and/or TD-SCDMA may have been implemented, which, unless the GSM1x chip becomes a GSM/DO chip and Unicom has not iplemented WCDMA or TD-SCDMA, it may be obsolete.
IMHO.
Bob |
