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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates

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To: tuck who wrote (617)	12/2/2003 7:16:28 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (1) of 897

Tuck, <<Well, this is an interesting question. The degree of involvement of Raf-1 in kidney cancer appears to be hit or miss depending on your genetic makeup and degree of disease progression.>> Ras-Raf-MEK activation and over-activity is not ONLY RCC characteristic. It is active in many cancer type (for instance colorectal as one with higher percentage), so my concern is why 9006 is active for RCC and not for CRC. IF it is anti-angiogeneic component (latest hype from EORC) that potentate 9006 activity than it should be active in CRC (like Avastin was). So, my concern is about Pts’s genetic-makeup and RCC type (clear cells carcinoma) that was enrolled, and how they were selected. Second, DNA Avastin RCC pivotal PIII trial is against inf-alpha2b (second most common immuno-based cancer agent for advance RCC): cancer.gov It is interesting that they did not included IL-2 based arm. ONXX PIII is against placebo for (???) end-stage RCC. This agent should work much better in combination (based on the action mode that ONXX is promoting), but I guess toxicity of the agent itself is problem here. <<And if this is the case, then Onyx probably is a good short.>> Recently I was short (@25) ONXX. Covered my short with small loss. Current positive spin from EORC and PR is too high to accommodate real view and compound value. I will be following story closely, and maybe in time again short stock. I am not against ONXX or 9006, but market value may incorporate perceptions that were hard to achieve even if 9006 prove to be effective for RCC. Miljenko

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