Super Seven States Key to Post-N.H. Push
Tuesday, December 02, 2003
WASHINGTON — There is life in politics after New Hampshire and Iowa.
Democratic presidential hopefuls who survive those two early presidential contests in January will face a daunting seven-state challenge in three time zones: The Feb. 3 primaries.
No candidate has an insurmountable edge in the Super Seven states — Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina. And the picture isn't likely to become clearer until Jan. 19 in Iowa and Jan. 27 in New Hampshire, when voters will separate front-runners from also-rans with the field's first shakeout.
Political observers and Democratic strategists say they expect Feb. 3 voting to winnow the field even further — perhaps to two or three major candidates — while awarding more than 10 percent of the 2,159 delegates needed for nomination.
"It may not decide who gets the nomination, but Feb. 3 will probably take a big chunk of the field out," said Joe Trippi, manager of Howard Dean's (search) front-running campaign.
Candidates are already hiring staff, collecting endorsements and buying television ads in the Super Seven states, offering an early glimpse of their post-New Hampshire strategy.
Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark (search), making an 11th-hour bid to bolster his poll ratings, is airing his 60-second biography ad in veteran-rich South Carolina, Oklahoma and Arizona.
Rep. Dick Gephardt (search) of Missouri, in a make-or-break duel with Dean in Iowa, will air his first South Carolina ads within the week, and plans to eventually buy TV time in Oklahoma. Clark and Gephardt have staff in six of the seven states, more than any other rival.
Interviews with more than two dozen experts in the Super Seven states turned up anecdotal evidence that Dean has the deepest grass-roots organization. But his operation is untested, and he may be weakest in South Carolina — the day's signature primary.
The former Vermont governor has run TV ads in four of the states, more than any other candidate.
According to a survey conducted by The Associated Press, Dean has more paid staff than his rivals in Arizona (11), New Mexico (nine) and Oklahoma (seven). He and Gephardt have three in North Dakota.
And Dean's enormous fund-raising advantage — he expects to raise more than $10 million in the last quarter alone — means the physician-turned-politician won't be spread as thin as his rivals.
But nobody is willing to say Dean has a lock on Feb. 3, especially if he fails to meet sky-high expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire. Indeed, the consensus is that the Super Seven races are up for grabs, with few voters paying attention to the nine-candidate race.
"Most voters want to know who they need to pay attention to. And they'll find that out after Iowa and New Hampshire," said Gary Copeland, director of the Carl Albert Center at the University of Oklahoma.
In Arizona, state senator Ken Cheuvront said voters are tuning out the candidates and their carping.
"They're too negative. Even the negatives toward President Bush, I don't think are registering well," said Cheuvront, who has not endorsed a candidate.
Dean is the focus of much of the criticism. Democrats are split, for example, over whether his use of the Confederate flag in speeches hurt him in South Carolina, where typically about half of the Democratic voters are black.
"That whole issue was the biggest bunch of malarkey I've ever heard in my life, and I think Dean made a serious mistake by apologizing. All he did is draw attention to it," said Don Fowler, former chairman of the national Democratic Party and longtime South Carolina resident.
Dean's campaign says he has just three paid aides in South Carolina, compared to 11 for Clark and nine for Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Gephardt. Edwards had a slight lead over black activist Al Sharpton in a poll last week.
Another poll in which fewer blacks were surveyed showed Clark and Edwards atop the lead.
After South Carolina, the state with the most campaign staff and candidate visits is Arizona. Dean has 11 staff; Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts has seven; Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut six and Clark four.
In New Mexico, Dean's nine-person staff is three times the size of his closest rival. Kerry has visited the state four times, a sign that he's targeting New Mexico along with South Carolina and Arizona.
In Oklahoma, Dean has seven staff while Lieberman, Gephardt and Edwards have four.
Only Dean has staff in North Dakota. Only Gephardt has staff in Missouri, his home state.
Lieberman has paid the most attention to Delaware, and thus has a clear edge. But even that is fleeting.
"Anybody can use Delaware as a springboard after New Hampshire," said John Flaherty, a registered Democrat and lobbyist in the state. "Tell me who wins there, and I'll tell you who's the front-runner here." |
