Biotech Valuation Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 52.74

+1.1%

10:52 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Icebrg who wrote (9634)	12/4/2003 6:23:43 AM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (1) of 52153

Lehman on ICOS Here is Lehman's take on ICOS. Pretty aggressive multiples considering that Icos's pipeline is all but empty. Maybe because I never feel comfortable with revenue-based multiples. There are so many other things hiding between the first and the last lines. Getting arms around valuation at $52 While valuation is tricky with any development stage biotech with profitability pushed out by several years, we believe that there is significant upside left for ICOS off current valuation levels. Indeed, in reviewing the valuation typically afforded emerging product companies in the first year of launch, we find at the low end a 15x multiple of revenues and at the high end a 32 x multiple of revenues, supporting a BTK adjusted valuation level for GILD, MEDI, and IDPH in their first year of product launch. If we apply the 15x multiple to the 50% share of our forecasted $430mln in revenues we arrive at a valuation level of $3.23bln or $52/share, which is what we estimate fair value at today. If Cialis were to sell closer to $500mln one could justify a share price today of $60/share.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next