Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, desperately seeking a foothold in the race, last week attacked Dean from the other direction, portraying his rival as too liberal to win a general election. Lieberman echoed the arguments raised against Dean this spring by the Democratic Leadership Council, the centrist Democratic group that Lieberman used to chair.
"I believe that kind of candidate could lead the Democratic Party into the political wilderness for a long time to come," Lieberman said. "It could be, really, a ticket to nowhere."
Lieberman's speech jabbed at Dean's weakest point: The fear that Dean could lead the party off a cliff in the general election may be the biggest hurdle he faces in the primary.
Privately, much of the Democratic establishment — elected officials, strategists, leaders of the most powerful interest groups — share Lieberman's conclusion. And as long as they do, it will be tough for Dean to attract much of the institutional support critical to surviving the tightly compressed primary calendar. Eventually, the anxiety among insiders might also spill over to average Democratic voters.
So, in the weeks ahead, the top priority facing Dean could be convincing the party leadership that he's not a sure loser against Bush. The terms of the argument between Dean and his critics are already emerging.
The party centrists dubious of Dean worry that he's weakest precisely where Democrats most need their candidate to be strong. A poll that the Democratic Leadership Council released last month showed Republicans already burying the Democrats when voters were asked which party could better handle national security; the fear is that Dean's unapologetic opposition to the war in Iraq could leave the party in a hole too deep on defense to overcome on other issues.
And although Dean isn't a reflexive liberal on cultural issues (he opposes most further gun control), some also worry that his support of civil unions for gays could accelerate the Democratic retreat in socially conservative parts of the country. Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, further stoked the fears that the campaign would drag the Democrats toward the margin when he argued recently that it was a "myth" the party had benefited from Bill Clinton's efforts to moderate its agenda and image.
Dean's supporters believe his critics are trapped in static thinking that ignores his potential to reshape the electorate. His backers are optimistic that he will encourage a huge turnout among core Democratic voters and appeal to swing voters less on ideological than stylistic grounds — as a straight-shooter like Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
In effect, as CNN analyst Bill Schneider has observed, the debate comes down to whether Dean is more like McCain or George McGovern, the liberal antiwar senator who suffered a landslide defeat against Richard Nixon in 1972.
Who's right? One early clue may be in whether Dean can broaden his support in the primaries beyond the well-educated, socially liberal, relatively upscale voters who usually sustain insurgencies like his.
If Dean can't win blue-collar and culturally conservative voters who still consider themselves Democrats, he's unlikely to convert their independent or Republican-leaning neighbors in a general election.
Dean will likely need to make inroads with downscale and morally traditional voters just to capture the nomination. But he'll definitely need strength beyond the National Public Radio set to avoid a McGovern-like blowout if he wins the chance to challenge Bush. |
