Kerry finally sounds very focused. He'd better be.
Job One For Kerry: Rebound In N.H.
By Dan Balz, Washington Post Staff Writer
MANCHESTER, N.H., Dec. 4 -- If John F. Kerry was looking for a sign that he has turned around his struggling presidential campaign, he got the opposite in New Hampshire on Thursday. Two new polls charted the erosion of his support in a state where the Massachusetts senator was once the heavy favorite.
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Both polls showed Kerry falling even further behind former Vermont governor Howard Dean (news - web sites) and in danger of being overtaken for second place by retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, and they lent urgency to his efforts to revitalize a campaign that has been sputtering through much of the fall.
The new numbers, which came in surveys by Zogby International and the American Research Group, showed Kerry roughly 30 percentage points behind Dean, after starting the year well ahead of the field of Democrats here. Zogby put Dean at 42 percent and Kerry at 12 percent. The ARG poll showed Dean at 45 percent, Kerry 13. Clark ran third in both, a few percentage points behind Kerry, with Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) fourth.
The findings underscore Kerry's precarious standing here, where the primary will be held Jan. 27, and point to why his campaign has redoubled efforts in Iowa, where, ironically he appears to be in stronger shape. His advisers believe he can challenge Dean and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (news - web sites) (Mo.) to a dead heat in the Jan. 19 caucuses.
Polls in Iowa paint a conflicting picture: In several surveys Kerry is challenging for second place; in another one this week, he was a distant third. Kerry has a well-regarded team in Iowa and recently drafted Michael Whouley, who ran Al Gore (news - web sites)'s national ground operation four years ago, to oversee the operation.
Even before the latest numbers in New Hampshire, Kerry said he recognized that time was of the essence. "I need to campaign like a bandit over the course of the next weeks and make sure people are clear about my candidacy," he said, "and I intend to make them clear."
Campaign officials played down the latest New Hampshire polls, saying the campaign is moving forward, but none offered evidence that Kerry has begun to gain ground on Dean in the state. "Clearly we've got some ground to make up, and we've got eight weeks to do it and we have the resources, a great team and a candidate who's determined to win to make up that ground," said campaign spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter.
Aboard his campaign bus earlier this week, Kerry offered several reasons for the state of his campaign, particularly in New Hampshire, saying the biggest problem is that he has been overshadowed by heavy publicity given to Dean and Clark and to the California recall.
"We got crowded out by the other events," he said. "Very simple. Crowded out by first the Internet and Dean and the war, and then crowded out by Arnold Schwarzenegger (news - web sites), and then crowded out by the new face on the block [Clark]. Now's the time for people to focus and say who can be president."
He acknowledges that Dean's opposition to the war helped coalesce the antiwar constituency within the party, but there is also the matter of his own position on Iraq (news - web sites). He supported the resolution authorizing President Bush (news - web sites) to go to war, which caused dismay among many longtime Kerry friends and supporters, but before and after the vote offered sharp criticism of Bush's foreign policy.
What he must now do, Kerry said, is "make sure people understand that I have the qualities of leadership to get us out of this problem, that everything that happened I foresaw [and] warned the president about -- in fact that my position was 100 percent consistent from day one and unequivocating."
Kerry critics, and even some supporters, say that an equally serious problem has been the absence of a clear and compelling message from the candidate, despite his impressive biography and experience. To remedy that, Kerry has begun delivering speeches outlining what he would do in his first 100 days as president and, in doing so, push voters to draw their own contrasts between his and Dean's experience, particularly in the area of national security.
"Think about it," he said in an interview this week. "You're going to build a house. You're not going to hire a contractor who's never built a house. . . . Well, a huge part of the job of being president is head of state, therefore chief diplomat and also commander in chief. Why would we not want to hire somebody who actually has the experience, has the leadership, proven skill and ability to do what you need to do in that job?"
As he campaigned in Iowa, some of those in the audience shared those concerns about Dean. "I don't think his message is going to carry a majority of the country," said Stanley Watkins, a retired college professor. "I think Kerry is a solid person." Asked how he thought Kerry was doing in Iowa, Watkins replied, "I don't think real well. I don't know why."
Justin Shields, who heads the Hawkeye Labor Council in Cedar Rapids and is a Kerry supporter, said he believes undecided Democrats will turn toward Kerry once they set aside their anger over Bush's Iraq policies and focus on who is electable. But he, too, said Kerry must shoulder some of the responsibility to force that change. "He can't assume that people believe he's the best candidate."
By opting out of public financing, Kerry now can match Dean and outspend Gephardt in Iowa. He has pressed Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) for an endorsement, so far to no avail.
Kerry attracted sizable and attentive crowds in Iowa, and on the campaign trail he was energetic and determined. His stump speech, built around heavy criticism of Bush, includes descriptions of what he would do to create more jobs, expand access to health care, fight corporate corruption, combat the power of special interests and, particularly, guide the United States in an era of terrorism.
A month ago, Kerry appeared ready to draw those distinctions with Dean and was poised to launch a series of attacks. He continues to challenge Dean in debates, but on the stump and in an interview he was reluctant to criticize his rival. "I don't want to take my campaign there," he said. "I want my campaign to be positive. I want to express my vision for the country, and I want to express what I want to do."
Former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), Kerry's most prominent supporter in the state, said Kerry must focus on an affirmative message. "When [voters] look at what people are proposing and the leadership they can provide, that's where John Kerry (news - web sites) has the edge. We have to make sure people know what he's proposing and get that out and that's what we're working hard to do."
Nor does Kerry want to talk about the staff changes he instituted a month ago, dismissing longtime adviser Jim Jordan and replacing him with Mary Beth Cahill. "I wanted to change the dynamic, and I think I did," he said, adding: "It liberated me to not worry about what is happening and just go forward and campaign."
Kerry said his mission is to do what he has not done so far: let voters know who he is. "Nobody knows who my campaign manager is, nobody cares," he said as his bus neared his next event. "They want to know, is John Kerry capable of leading this nation where we need to go, and I am, and I'm going to prove it over the course of these next weeks."
Shaheen, who has experience working for presidential candidates who have come from far back to win in New Hampshire, said there is still time for Kerry to do the same, although she has never been part of a campaign that saw its lead disappear as Kerry's has.
The candidate said he believes he is stronger now in Iowa than in New Hampshire but predicted a turnaround before late January. "I don't think I've yet been able to communicate as much there as I have" in Iowa, he said. "I will be over the next weeks. I'm very confident about my ability to move New Hampshire. I intend to win New Hampshire." |
