Hello current trend, <<A hypothetical invasion of Taiwan would be won or lost in and over the straight of Taiwan>>
... the thinking in the article is perhaps too conventional.
The reality may be that Mainland-Taiwan economic integration is happening even as we post, socio-cultural life force is perhaps departing Taiwan with each passing day, 400k of Taiwan's most productive definitely are living full time on the Mainland, and it could be that time, that most precious of commodities, is not with Taiwan administration [EDIT: Rolling Stones' song comes easily to mind right about now].
The popular polls supposedly indicate that the majority of Taiwan residents do not want any change in the status quo, meaning no reunification and no declaration of independence.
So, with the passing of time, and the progress of the Mainland, the political end-game will likely be the end-game, as in concluding, final, but sudden, and then full stop, just like when the Berlin Wall crumbled, followed by a blur of developments that surprised the world that was not ready.
Most of the discussions about Taiwan-Mainland implicitly assume that the situation of everything on the Mainland remains static, whereas the fact is the Mainland is the fastest evolving society, for better or worse, on this planet today, and have been for the past 20 years, following a road map going towards TeoTwawKi.
I do not recognize the China mainland of today if I use my mindset of 3 years ago (never mind 20 years ago), and so I for one would not be so certain of what the China mainland will look like 20 years (about the time we arrive at terminus stop of TeoTwawKi journey as far as this babyboom generation is concerned) from now. It could just be that at that time there will be mainlanders not wishing to receive Taiwan's masses into the fold. Who knows?
This will simply one of those "Just Is's" when it happens, whatever happens.
I know a lot of Taiwanese, but I cannot say I know anyone who has expressed a willingness to defend Taiwan.
I also know a lot of mainlanders, and I can say that many have proclaimed their willingness to take down the Japan-loving (supposedly philosophically, i.e. referencing the ex-president Lee who backs the current Chen) Taiwan administration.
Another note, perhaps telling. During SARS episode back in March-May, mainland Chinese doctors risked their lives to stay in the hospitals to help patients. Hong Kong Chinese doctors risked no less for no more. Enough Taiwan Chinese doctors stopped showing up for work to make the newspaper headlines.
As far as war is concerned, should the chitchat get serious, I would guess even more serious capital flight will commence out of Taiwan, followed by people flight, leaving a mess behind, without a single shot having been fired by either side.
War, in fact, is not just about torpedos and bombs.
In any case, I really doubt that events will come to war in any sense of the word, though I am not obverse to see some war scare in the financial market indices, because crisis is a partner, volatility is a friend, and the lonely path is the right way.
Chugs, Jay |
