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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates

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To: tuck who wrote (623)12/5/2003 3:26:12 PM
From: tuck  Read Replies (1) of 897
 
Taking profits in VXGN appears to have been a good move. However, BSCP manager woke up late today and missed opportunities to cash in CTIC and MAXY shorts for small gains.

CTIC's munch of NovusPharm is well received by SI biofreaks, who think that the jewel in the latter's pipeline, pixanthrone, is a stealth winner. Although Xyotax, the company's flagship drug is looking wobbly, good news from pixanthrone could offset it. Accordingly, BSCP is looking to get out with a minimal gain there.

It was never looking for much from MAXY, just a retrace below $10. Although MAXY hasn't delivered much with its "Molecular Breeding" version of directed evolution when compared to AMEV, the argument that the munch of AMEV by Lilly may end up sending business to MAXY and DVSA has some merit.

Holding a double edged sword with GERN. Interim PI results coming soon. Stock was up wildly on unusually good results of an early biomarker in this study. If they really foreshadow success in this trial, BSCP is going to get its clock cleaned. If not, it's back to the single digits for GERN.

Meanwhile, IDBE today announced more results for its FluInsure vaccine trials. The single dose efficacy looks better than the earlier results seemed to imply. There is apparently a possible shortage of standard flu vaccines this season, and that may save MEDI from a miserable launch of its premium priced FluMist vaccine. All of this will likely be see as favorable to IDBE, and BSCP is contemplating taking its lumps with that one and bailing.

Finally, AMGN doesn't look like it's going to give me much more downside. Analysts are expecting it to announce guidance to the high side in it upcoming call, so BSCP will take small profits at $58.40, the current ask.

Cheers, Tuck
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