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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH

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To: geode00 who wrote (504629)12/5/2003 7:01:17 PM
From: geode00  Read Replies (1) of 769670
 
Fun (not so much) with employment, gdp growth and productivity numbers.

Lester Thurow made some interesting points. This was off the radio so I don't have all the specifics but here's the rub:

- During the Clinton years, the economy was producing some 2 million jobs/year. Although jobs were going overseas, the overall GDP and job growth masked much of it.

- During the BushJr years, the economy has been losing about 1 million jobs/year. Jobs are still going overseas but now they're more highly skilled jobs plus we're feeling it because there's no growth to mask it.

If we grow GDP at 3%/year but productivity grows at 5%/year, we're going to feel it in loss of employment or lack of employment. So productivity growth is actually exacerbating the employment problem. So the economy needs to grow faster than productivity or we're going to continue to feel the loss.

In addition, the theory is that a job should be done for the same amount of money anywhere in the world. If a job can be done in India for $12/hour then it should be done here for $12/hour. It used to be that developed countries could do the job better but that gap is closing or has closed.

It's not just manufacturing or technical jobs going overseas, it's a CFO position that can go overseas for half the price. It's a sticky problem and it's not all bad but it does mean developed countries are going to have to run a whole lot faster to stay ahead.
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