It couldn't have been just the news, which basically boiled down to 'we have been somewhat delayed in startup' ... sounds like they didn't have the greatest luck with weather, and they sort of hint at equipment problems with the 'commissioning' reference .... of course that's normal, nothing ever starts up at full capacity
Might have been the three nice stones, they shouldn't come as a surprise though to anyone who has gone over the old Koidu data ... but i think what likely happened was, a number of people had been watching the share waiting for it to do something, and the catalyst was one or more sizable players breaking it out to the 'do something' point, from where it attracted attention .... call it gentle guidance, maybe, don't know, haven't gone over the tape ..... what a surprise, to log on and see that, really i was getting resigned to waiting .... will it be sustained, i dunno, we shall see
How to value it, well there is the Guess Future Earnings approach .... TA has a post on ihub where he works out Koidu plus Malawi plus various other bits of revenue into usd.60/sh earnings for FY2004, and my ten-minute pencil and paper review of his figures didn't turn up much wrong with them .... who knows though, anything can happen, good or bad .... but if that was to happen, and to appear consistent into the future, and you gave dmw a Scarey African discount of p/e at 5.0, then the shareprice would at least visit usd3.00, which is what, something over four loonies
But who knows ... there could come civil war again, or they could get ripped off in Malawi like in Zambia ... on upside possibilities, sky's the limit as always, they could get Luo rolling in Angola, and/or step up oil trading into other countries, maybe even get a reasonable settlement in Zambia and the deal there reinstated [wouldn't hold my breath waiting on this though, try reading some of the zambian press, some wild politics there lately] .... probably each person just has to evaluate the prospects for himself, i think it's worth well over two loonies the share, your mileage may vary .... there certainly are safer plays around ..... did you have shares and off them today? ... i pondered on it, didn't have much time to think, but figured nah, wait and see ..... cheers |
